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Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

City's economy is facing three structural challenges

By Zhou Bajun | China Daily HK | Updated: 2019-09-21 11:05
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor meets the press ahead of an Executive Council meeting in Hong Kong on Aug 20, 2019. [Photo/chinadaily.com.cn]
武汉论坛 京津冀三地消费者协会近日公布的网售智能门锁比较试验结果显示,在测试的28个品牌38把智能门锁中,每款门锁都或多或少存在着安全风险。 武汉女人 一是加快推动全省救助家庭经济状况核对平台建设,9月底前实现省市县三级互联互通,精准识别兜底保障对象;二是开展农村留守老年人关爱服务政策落实督查月和农村互助幸福院运营质量提升月活动,不断健全农村留守老年人关爱服务体系,提升农村留守老年人关爱服务质量;三是组织省级社会组织合力团助力深度贫困地区脱贫攻坚项目对接月活动,助力深度贫困县区按期脱贫摘帽;四是强力推进易地扶贫搬迁“强管理、促融入”工作,加大协调力度,凝聚部门合力,强化对搬迁群众的后续管理服务,引导搬迁群众尽快融入新的生活环境,提升获得感和幸福感;五是开展残疾人“两项补贴信息系统历史数据精准录入工作,确保残疾人数据全面、真实、准确;六是深化“两联一包”扶贫,积极协调省级洛南县扶贫团各成员单位,加大帮扶力度,形成帮扶合力,助力洛南县顺利脱贫摘帽;七是制定出台我省《关于进一步健全农村留守儿童和困境儿童关爱服务体系的实施意见》,强化贫困地区儿童福利机构和保护机构服务能力建设,加大贫困地区农村留守儿童和困境儿童关爱服务体系建设支持力度;八是制定出台我省《慈善爱心超市管理办法》,加强慈善爱心超市制度化、规范化管理,发挥好慈善爱心超市激发贫困群众脱贫内生动力的重要作用;九是制定出台《关于加强全省民政基础设施管护工作的意见》切实发挥基层民政基础设施在脱贫攻坚中托底保障作用;十是制定出台《陕西省民政厅脱贫攻坚工作成效考核办法》,切实发挥考核“指挥棒”作用,以考核促脱贫攻坚任务落实。 创业   呼吸道烧伤别大意需尽快就医  呼吸道烧伤可伴有或不伴有全身烧伤,由于呼吸道部位的特殊性,一旦受到高温或化学剂的侵蚀,呼吸道粘膜即可发生肿胀,重者影响呼吸甚至窒息而导致严重缺氧。 武汉女人 报国寺社区 武汉女人 恒山 论坛资讯 阜宁

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor warned that the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region must wade through an economic malaise that will likely be more acute than the previous two downturns caused by the financial crisis in 1997 and SARS outbreak in 2003.

The approaching economic malaise suggests that the economy, as well as society, are facing three fundamental structural challenges.

The first challenge originates from the United States initiating a new global strategy that unprecedentedly lists China as one of its main rivals.

It has been a consensus of the global community to treat Sino-US relations as the most important bilateral relationship in the first half of the 21st century.

The far-reaching influence of the rivalry between the two economies is the linchpin in the paradigm shift of the century and could determine the 21st-century global power layout.

The bruising trade war that US President Donald Trump launched has spilled over into science and technology as well as finance, and it will no doubt trigger shakedowns of industrial chains and value chains on a global scale.

As a result, the trade war has increasingly affected Hong Kong as a trading port and will continue to do so in the years to come.

The list of markets that Hong Kong does transshipment trade with will change, as will their standing by trade value and Hong Kong's total trade volume.

Those two factors will affect other industries closely related to transshipment trade to the extent that it may be a matter of life and death for some enterprises.

The second structural challenge is the result of the repositioning of Hong Kong's external relations.

More importantly, it is the natural outcome of the country's relations with the US and some other Western countries that has necessitated Hong Kong's repositioning of itself in response to the changing big picture and will continue to do so.

Before the US adjusted its global strategy with China as one of its main rivals, Hong Kong was a "bridge" between China and the US-led Western powers as well as a center of friction. As the US stepped up efforts to contain China from all directions and its Western allies more or less went along for the ride, Hong Kong has quickly become a "battlefield" in a sense.

The US and some of its Western allies are the "dirty hands" conducting the ongoing "black revolution" in Hong Kong.

The "black revolution" is no doubt doomed to fail, but Hong Kong must take a side, which is the sovereign state no matter what, meaning it simply cannot sit on the fence between the motherland and the US-led Western powers.

This change is happening and will conclude in the foreseeable future. As such, it will noticeably impact Western economies' investment in Hong Kong, including the amount of capital they have already invested in the SAR.

Hong Kong society has long been influenced by Western culture and politics, with the US and the UK being the most important investors in the city.

That is why the repositioning of Hong Kong amid the changing relations between the motherland and the US-led Western powers are already faced with growing resistance.

It is bound to happen whether one likes it or not. Whether the repositioning process will be smooth or otherwise will be reflected by Hong Kong's GDP growth and employment situation.

The third structural challenge arises from the advancement of the "one country, two systems" policy with the times. Hong Kong's biggest carrier, Cathay Pacific Airways, was the first to feel the pressure to strike a balance between "one country" and "two systems".

A recent notice from the Civil Aviation Administration of China warned Cathay against allowing its employees to engage in "illegal protests", "violent acts" and "overly radical activities", in response to recent instances in which Cathay Pacific employees, including pilots in active service, posed undeniable security and safety risks to passengers.

The warning demanded that beginning on Aug 10, Cathay Pacific immediately bar anyone engaged in or supporting illegal protests and violent acts from working on flights over the mainland regardless of the type of flight; beginning on Aug 11, all Cathay Pacific and affiliated airlines must submit complete passenger and crew manifests of all flights to or over the mainland in advance so that the civil aviation departments concerned can verify and approve them, and flights that fail to pass advance security checks will be rejected; and beginning Aug 15, Cathay Pacific must submit a proper action plan to enhance flight safety and security measures for approval by the relevant civil aviation authorities on the mainland as a qualified commercial air transport operator.

The requirements for Cathay Pacific are unprecedented and have sent an important message: The central government is now emphasizing that implementing the "one country, two systems" policy is a common undertaking for the Hong Kong SAR as well as the mainland.

The original intent of the "one country, two systems" policy was to ensure the exercise of socialism on the mainland and capitalism in Hong Kong, but many people have mistakenly convinced themselves of caring only about practicing capitalism in Hong Kong in the past 22 years.

This partial view has given rise to "localism" and pursuit of Hong Kong independence. Such ideas are closely related to rallying calls of the ongoing "black revolution" such as "no extradition to China" and "free Hong Kong, revolution now".

That is why Cathay Pacific was made an example of, to never take any erroneous interpretation of the "one country, two systems" principle for granted ever. All business owners in Hong Kong must learn a lesson from Cathay Pacific regarding correctly understanding "one country, two systems" and fix their conduct accordingly.

That is the significance of the Cathay Pacific scandal and backlash and will spill over to Hong Kong-based businesses' investment and flow of capital on the mainland.

As a result, it will also lead to the readjustment of Hong Kong's local capital structure.

The three structural challenges are intertwined and affecting deeper adjustment of Hong Kong's economy and finance as well as its future socio-political situation.

The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.

  
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